On the Frontiers of Computer Technological Advances

with Professor Clement K. Dzidonu

The year 2008 is now here with us and true to tradition; the pundits have looked into their crystal balls and made their predictions on what we should expect in the computer industry, this year and beyond. Just some examples:



Taking the predictions on computer security threats for example, McAfee and others are predicting that threats will be moving quickly to technologies such as VoIP and instant messaging. Also Roger Grimes writing in the January, 2008 edition of Computerworld on the topic the Predictions of Security in 2008 pointed out that: Windows Vista will continue to be attacked and exploited. If Grimes is to be believed that the future computer security threats can be deduced from the past, then the Internet will continue to be a very dangerous place to compute; malware, adware, and spam will still make up a very large portion of Internet traffic; PCs will continue to be filled with worms, spyware, and adware; antivirus software will continue to be embarrassingly inaccurate against newly created malware; distributed denial of service attacks will still go on unabated and will be very hard to defend against and client-side attackers will continue to make up more than 90 percent of all malicious compromises. Certainly not a pretty picture of the future of computing when looked at in terms of the computer security menace, never mind the expected technological advances in the field and industry. Well you know what they say!!: If you open your doors to let in the fresh air, you do let in the dust as well.



Touching on some of the predictions in the area of education, the Americans in their Visions 2020 document on education entitled , Transforming Education and Training Through Advanced Technologies are predicting that the advances in educational delivery technologies and the Internet will revolutionalize the educational experience of their kids beyond recognition. In fact, some are predicting that there will be no need for the brick and mortar schools in America after all is said and done.



Gartner writing on their Top 10 IT predictions for 2008 and beyond, published in NetworkWorld, January 2008 edition, also predicted that by 2012, half of all workers will use devices other than their laptops when they travel. According to Gartner, "Even though notebooks continue to shrink in size and weight, traveling workers lament the weight and inconvenience of carrying them on their trips. Gartner also predicted that by 2012, 80% of commercial software will contain open source code; software-as-a-service will account for at least one-third of business application spending; and that by 2010, 75% of IT shops won't buy PC hardware unless it meets standards for lower carbon emissions and "full life-cycle energy" usage.



On the other hand Deloitte in their publication: Technology Media and Telecommunication (TMT) Trend for 2008 predicted social networking will continue to gain in popularity, concerns about privacy and user safety will grow and the price of mobile phone handsets will continue to fall and will hit as low as $10 in 2009. Others are also predicting that: VoIP will soon kill-off PSTN and mobile voice; with WIFI networks set to destroy mobile data networks; and IPTV will see off the eminent demise of traditional TV as a medium of entertainment, advertisement and news. One cannot be sure about this last prediction, at least within the content of sub-Saharan African where we are still facing challenges to deploy high-bandwidth to our homes. The truth is that worldwide IPTV is still struggling to differentiate itself from traditional TV, the overall demand for IPTV will therefore continue to remain a niche market rather than a mainstream one in the near future at least in Africa.



One can go on and document other predictions, it is however interesting to note that all the pundits predicting the future of the technology, its usage, implications and ramifications, without actually saying it, do expect the extension of the technological frontiers in the computer field and industry in terms of new technological developments, enhancements, upgrades, products and even one or two technological breakthroughs or revolutions in software, systems or in the hardware field. There is no doubt that there is one thing we all expect in the computer business and that is: technological advancement of one type or another.



This reminds me of the popular saying: nothing is certain in life except death and taxes. Well!! I would go a bit further to say that: there are three certainties in life: death, taxes and technological advancement. To predict that the world will be witnessing advances in the computer field and industry will be like predicting that: the next Africa Cup of Nation will be hosted in two years time. Technological advancement in the computer field is something we do take for granted and do expect, hence predicting it, is like predicting nothing.



However one could argue that it is reasonably safe to predict, speculate or comment on the nature, or the pace or the quantum leap of the technological advancement. For example, one of the celebrated predictions relating to the pace of advancement in the microchip industry was made some years back by Gordon Moore former Chairman of Intel Corp --- what is now known as the Moore's Law. In the original exposition of this prediction, Moore noted in 1965 that the complexity of minimum cost semiconductor components had doubled per year since the first prototype microchip was produced in 1959. This exponential increase in the number of components on a chip became later known as Moore's Law. In the 1980s, Moore's Law started to be described as the doubling of number of transistors on a chip every 18 months. At the beginning of the 1990s, Moore's Law became commonly interpreted as the doubling of microprocessor power every 18 months. In the 1990s, Moore's Law became widely associated with the claim that computing power at fixed cost is doubling every 18 months.

Whether developments in the microchip industry have proved Moore right is a matter of debate, but we are not going to go into that for now. In fact according to IIkka Tuomi writing on The Lives and Death of Moore's Law noted that; the law has become popular partly because it has allowed great flexibility in interpretation and selective choice of supporting data. ---- in this process, Moore's Law and evidence for it have retrospectively been interpreted to establish the validity of the Law --- As semiconductors are becoming important in economy and society, Moore's Law in his view is now becoming an increasingly misleading predictor of future developments.

Well at least it goes to show that, while advancement in the computer field is certain, predicting the nature or the pace of the advancement is more of an art than a science.

In this column I will be joining others to take the position that advances in the computer field and industry is given and will therefore be devoting my time to examining and commenting on what is new on the technological frontier and discussing their use and implications for the industry and computer users in our neighbourhood - Africa.

The column will also devote time to doing some reality check by examining some of the obstacles, challenges and constraints which as sure as the sun will shine will in all certainty be frustrating and delaying Africa's adoption and absorption rate of these technological advances; and limit our capacities and capabilities to deploy these new technological solutions and products. Some may argue that: there are in fact four not three certainties in life (at least in the life of a Sub-Saharian Africa): death, taxes, technological advances and four --- obstacles to the adoption of these technological advances. I am sure you will have a view on this. Please watch this space as we surf the frontiers of technological advances and relate these to the realities on the ground we walk on in our neighbourhood --- Africa --- or may I dare say Africa South of the Sahara.



The Author is the President of the Accra Institute of Technology (AIT) – The University of the Future (www.ait.edu.gh)

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